Oil Value Chart: Crude Rally Rips into Key Resistance – Commerce Ranges


Crude Oil prices are poised to mark a seventh consecutive daily advance today if price closes at these levels with the rally now targeting confluence resistance just higher. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the crude oil price charts (WTI). Review this week’s Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this oil price setup and more.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI Daily

Oil Price Chart - WTI Daily - Crude Technical Outlook

Technical Outlook: In my latest Oil Price Weekly Outlook we noted that the recent reversal price shifted the, “near-term focus higher but keeps the broader advance within the confines of the descending price pattern we’ve been tracking for weeks now… The risk remains for a stretch higher in oil prices with more significant resistance eyed at the 2018 open / 61.8% retracement of the April decline at 60.06/45 – look for a bigger reaction there IF reached.” Crude is now within striking distance with price attempting to mount the 50% retracement / 100-day moving average at 58.56/96.

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Oil Price Chart – WTI 120min

Oil Price Chart - WTI 120min - Crude Technical Outlook

Notes: A closer look at price action shows oil trading within the confines of a near-term ascending pitchfork formationExtending off the June lows with crude defending the median-line early in the week. Initial resistance stands with the 61.8% parallel backed by 60.06/45 – a topside breach / close above this threshold is needed to keep the immediate long-bias viable with such a scenario targeting the upper parallel / 62.44. Weekly open support rests at 57.58 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to 54.80.

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Bottom line: The oil price rally is approaching a critical resistance pivot we’ve been tracking for months now at 60.06/45 and we’re looking for a reaction here. From a trading standpoint, a good spot to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops. We’ll be on the lookout for possible topside exhaustion on a stretch higher into resistance. Ultimately, we’ll favor fading a deeper pullback while within the confines of this formation.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Oil Trader Sentiment

Oil Trader Sentiment - Crude Positioning - WTI Price Chart

  • A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Crude Oil – the ratio stands at +1.54 (60.6% of traders are long) – bearish reading
  • Traders have remained net-long since May 22nd; price has moved 7.8% lower since then
  • Long positions are 1.8% lower than yesterday and 19.6% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 3.9% higher than yesterday and 19.6% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Crude Oil prices may continue to fall. Yet traders are less net-long than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current Crude Oil price trend may soon reverse higher despite the fact traders remain net-long.

See how shifts in Crude retail positioning are impacting trend- Learn more about sentiment!

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– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex





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